Cold war 2.0

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European leaders brace for their ‘five-minutes-to-midnight’ nightmare summit

 

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Since security was mentioned and also was a topic during our election campaign:

So Germany is objectively save by international comparison. Whatever changes do happen from year to year are happening on a relatively high safety level and the longterm trend is positive.

If we look at which demographics are more prone to involvement in violent crime we get this:

As you can see Turks and Eastern Europeans have only very mildly elevated numbers, it's people from Arabic countries that stick out here, especially North Africans. However, these are disproportionately low income, low education young males to begin with - the most violence-prone demographic anywhere on earth as far as I know.
Let's have a closer look:
- Japan and China, these are mostly people on a work or study visa
- Other Central Europeans and Indians, these also mostly moved here for job opportunities (except, obviously for Ukrainians which are war refugees and therefor high risk but also predominantly women with children and therefor very low risk)
- Eastern Europe, mostly people coming for better job opportunities (in the case of Romania welfare payments from the German government for children back in Romania might also be a pull factor)
- Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia ... these are mostly undereducated young men who are here under subsidiary protection and often have no work permit. Also war trauma and mental health issues
- Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, these aren't refugees but mostly young men trying to find a better future. They often lack the education, the language skills and the work and residence permits so some of them revert to crime. When they commit crimes their home countries sometimes refuse to take them back so deportation can be difficult. It is worth pointing out that not only is it still a relatively small minority of this category that is violently criminal but the category also forms a minority within the German Arabic community because most Arabs in Germany are Syrians or Iraqis. And of course there are some doctors and engineers etc even in this demographic

 

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The CDU and the SPD seem to have agreed on some serious investments for the beginning term in office:

- They want to change the constitutional debt brake in such a way that all defense spending of over 1% of GDP is exempt from the debt brake and there is no constitutional limit to defense spending.
- Additionally they have agreed on a fenced special budget (a legally and politically controversial construct that has been used before) of 500 billion Euros for infrastructure investments

They will need the additional support of the Greens to change the constitution. The Greens will likely agree in the end but are pissed that a) they were not only very aggressively attacked by folks like Merz and Söder both before and after the election and b) they weren't consulted on the matter.

 

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Macron: France must face ‘Russian threat’ with or without US

 

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Step by step the Russian siege of Pokrovsk is falling apart.
This is currently perhaps the most active section of the front line.

 

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I'm not sure I understand what you mean. Who is creating a culture war with what radicals?

Your own words are that you have the impression that far right and violent immigrant are often on the same team. What is indeed kinda true since they both want to rise tensions in order that the system spins out of control. The current dynamic is simply likely to lead into some kind of war for cultural dominance.

Two (or three, not sure anymore) people were paid by a Russian citizen to put construction foam into the exhaust pipes of cars and leave behind election stickers of the Greens.

In this exact incident yes, but I doubt this is the only thing that happened over the years.

A company that owned some terminals in the habor sold 24.99% of a terminal to a Chinese company. I am not aware of any Bosnian involved, the head of the company is German. I found no Google result for "Hamburg harbor sale China Bosnia" that included "Bosnia" or "Bosnian".

If you are going to search it like that this almost surely wouldn't work. When the story was active I think I read somewhere in DW or similar professional source what exactly happened with that sale. Now when I think about it I think that the guy in the story was local representative from SPD that did the lobbing and connecting people. Plus I said Bosnian simply because the name was stereotypical Bosnian. But in this case I am not 100% sure that my memory is correct. Some time has passed and Hamburg just isn't on the top of my priorities in life.

I don't see any scenerio where that could possibly happen. Most Turks wouldn't do it and I don't think there are enough Serbs to do it.

Perhaps, but if the numbers of immigrants continue to go up you must be aware that things will fundamentally change.

Plus you must not forget that the hypothetical scenario involved plenty of fire support from Russian fleet. What means that standard enforcement of "Law and order" wouldn't be possible. Since all large groups will be easy target (the same goes for all security infrastructure). However it is true that Russia probably has smarter things to do than start WW3 in Hamburg. I used the concept simply as a example of what is potentially possible.

I don't think Western Europe is pushing Eastern Europe to become more multicultural. They do want them to share part of the burden of refugee reception as members of the EU family, that is true, but that contribution could be financial or logistical or whatever. As I have often said, we need a reform of Dublin 2.

Officially they don't want them to be more multicultural. The problem is that in practice they want them to go that way.
First of all pro Immigration parties are popping all over the region and they are mixed with various NGOs, which are mixed with NGOs in western Europe. This is kinda conspiracy talk but the argument is kinda legit. Also there are big corporations in the mix, there often isn't enough of local workers for them to expand into the area and thus they expect that those workers are imported (and some people need campaign money). There is one more thing, EUs single market. In other words if other parts of the union are importing plenty of young people then you have to do it as well. Otherwise you are risking major loss of competitiveness on the single market. Plus there is a factor that Western Europe is doing brain drain at the east with better wages. So if already bad demography is hit with large brain drain on top of it your options are pretty limited. Basically it is either immigration or forever recession.


And all of this is exactly why anti EU parties are doing better and better in the east (to the point that they started to take power).
When the wall came down the current dynamic isn't what the people had in mind. What is major problem that has evident potential to completely crash the EU as we know it. Many live with the impression that their culture is being exterminated and that leads into problems. Especially since this is kinda true when it comes to the final result. Just the implementation of rigid market principles into the mix is basically a major culture change. Because this is foregn "ideology". Espeically since what you call "Protestant work ethic" is also evident foreign element.

Here I would agree. They will have to let go of certain things in order to function over here. Especially when it comes to the Guilt–shame–fear spectrum of cultures. My husband often points out that many of his migrant students live in an honor and shame based culture and their ethnically German fellow working class classmates are adopting this culture. Fistfights over preceived insults. "Yo, he insulted my mother, so I had to smash his face". On the other hand, less emphasis on individual conscience and responsibility, let alone protestant work ethics.

I am sorry but stuff like these are kinda inevitable if plenty of people comes in. From what I understand Germany is still about 75% actually German. However when that number drops bellow 60% many parts of the country wouldn't feel fully German anymore. Since local politics will change with demography. Especially if AfD parts of the country start their own story in certain parts. I mean for this dynamic I don't have to look futher than my own local tourist centers. Especailly since in such places local housing becomes something you rent to tourists and thus locals move away. What basically leads into collpase of the local culture.

Well, yeah, the world tends to drag us into things we'd rather not be dragged into.

True, however since the mess of some kind is basically inevitable it is smart to be prepared and thimk things through.

 

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The argument on 11:40 shows the full absurdity of the current model.

 

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The current cover of Der Spiegel

"The New Face of America - Donald Trump's Brutal Politics and the Consequences for Europe".

 

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Major split in EU as leaders get deal on arming Ukraine — without Hungary

Germany splits with former frugal allies in push to boost EU military spending

Trump’s US destroying world order, says Ukraine’s UK ambassador

Romania foils ‘revolution’ of pro-Russia group featuring a 101-year-old man

Poland, Denmark open to Macron’s nuclear deterrent proposal


This is history writing itself.

 

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Ukraine updates: EU leaders back new defense spending plans

 

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Bosnian Serb police raid federal office as tensions escalate

The odds of civil war in Bosnia are rising pretty quickly. Since pro Russian separatists are basically declaring their independence from the central government. After all this war never really ended, it just got frozen for quite a while. Something like what we see in Korea down to this day.



Poland seeks access to nuclear arms and looks to build half-million-man army

3 Bulgarians convicted of spying for Russia in the UK

Ukraine uses French Mirage jets for first time in repelling massive Russian attack

Paris: WWII bomb discovery disrupts trains

 

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Make or break indeed.

 

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Bosnian Serb police raid federal office as tensions escalate

The odds of civil war in Bosnia are rising pretty quickly. Since pro Russian separatists are basically declaring their independence from the central government. After all this war never really ended, it just got frozen for quite a while. Something like what we see in Korea down to this day.

EU sends more troops to Bosnia as Russia defends Serb leader

Bosnia: Separatist laws suspended, EU to add peacekeepers


Escalation continues.
One or two wrong moves and the place will look just like Ukraine (just as it did in the 90s). Turning all of this onto the second war in Europe is realistic possibility. What would mean that neighboring Kosovo would probably also be up in flames pretty quickly (for the same reason).



Europe scrambles to aid Ukraine after US intelligence cutoff

Russian strikes on Ukraine leave 14 dead

UK bans meat, dairy imports from Hungary, Slovakia after foot-and-mouth case

Turkey’s Erdoğan tries to sink popular rival in flood of court battles

Myanmar junta chief says election to be held by January 2026

South Korea's impeached Yoon Suk Yeol released from prison